Trading Expectancy Calculator
A trading expectancy calculator works out the average result per trade of a record of closed trades. Expectancy = win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss, so a 40% win rate with a $100 average win and a $50 average loss averaged $10 per trade.
How do you calculate trading expectancy?
Expectancy = win rate × average win − (1 − win rate) × average loss. The win rate is the share of closed trades that won, written as a decimal. The averages are taken after costs, and the average loss is entered as a positive amount.
Expectancy in R divides the result by the average loss, so a record can be compared across account sizes: 0.2 R means the average trade gained a fifth of the average loss.
The break-even win rate for a pair of averages is average loss ÷ (average win + average loss). Below it, those averages give a negative expectancy.
What is a worked example of expectancy?
A record of 50 trades with a 40% win rate, a $100 average win and a $50 average loss has an expectancy of $10 per trade. That is 0.40 × $100 − 0.60 × $50 = $40 − $30, which is 0.2 R when divided by the average loss.
A demo account's last 50 closed trades: 20 won and 30 lost, so the win rate is 40%. The average win was $100 and the average loss $50, after costs.
| Part | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0.40 × $100 | $40.00 |
| Losses | 0.60 × $50 | $30.00 |
| Expectancy | $40 − $30 | $10.00 per trade |
In R, $10 ÷ $50 = 0.2 R. The break-even win rate for these averages is $50 ÷ ($100 + $50) = 33.3%.
The same averages with a 30% win rate give 0.30 × $100 − 0.70 × $50 = −$5 per trade. The record lost money even though each win was twice the size of each loss.
How win rate and ratio work together is explained in the lesson Risk Reward Ratio: How to Calculate It, and the trading journal lesson shows how to keep the records this calculator needs.
What is R-multiple expectancy?
R-multiple expectancy is the average result per trade measured in units of risk. One R is the amount you risked on a trade, the distance to the stop-loss times the position size. A trade that made twice its risk is +2R; a full stop-out is −1R. The average R across a record is its expectancy in R.
Measuring in R lets you compare records with different position sizes and account currencies. When every trade risks the same amount, expectancy in R equals expectancy in money divided by that risk, which is how the calculator shows it: expectancy ÷ average loss.
What does a 10-trade expectancy log look like?
A 10-trade log lists each closed trade's risk, result and R-multiple, then averages them. In this EURUSD example log, each trade risked 50 pips at 0.10 lot, about $50. Four trades won and six lost, the net result was +$100, so expectancy is $10 per trade, or 0.2R.
| Trade | Risk (stop distance) | Result after costs | R-multiple | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50 pips, $50 | −$50 | −1.0R | −$50 |
| 2 | 50 pips, $50 | +$120 | +2.4R | +$70 |
| 3 | 50 pips, $50 | −$50 | −1.0R | +$20 |
| 4 | 50 pips, $50 | −$45 | −0.9R | −$25 |
| 5 | 50 pips, $50 | +$90 | +1.8R | +$65 |
| 6 | 50 pips, $50 | −$55 | −1.1R | +$10 |
| 7 | 50 pips, $50 | +$100 | +2.0R | +$110 |
| 8 | 50 pips, $50 | −$50 | −1.0R | +$60 |
| 9 | 50 pips, $50 | +$90 | +1.8R | +$150 |
| 10 | 50 pips, $50 | −$50 | −1.0R | +$100 |
- Win rate: 4 of 10 trades won, so 40%.
- Average win: ($120 + $90 + $100 + $90) ÷ 4 = $100. Average loss: ($50 + $50 + $45 + $55 + $50 + $50) ÷ 6 = $50.
- Expectancy: 0.40 × $100 − 0.60 × $50 = $10 per trade, the same as the total of $100 ÷ 10 trades.
- In R: the R-multiples add up to +2.0R, and 2.0R ÷ 10 = 0.2R, the same as $10 ÷ $50.
Entering 40, 100 and 50 in the calculator gives the same $10 and 0.2R. Trade 4 lost less than its risk because it was closed early, and trade 6 lost more because of costs. The trading journal lesson shows how to keep a log like this.
How do you read an expectancy result?
Read expectancy as a description of a past record: below zero, the record lost money on average after costs; near zero, wins and losses roughly cancelled; above zero, it gained on average. The size of the figure matters less than how many trades stand behind it and whether they were taken the same way.
A rough guide to reading a record in R:
| Expectancy per trade | What it tells you about the record |
|---|---|
| Below 0R | Losses outweighed wins after costs |
| About 0R (−0.05R to +0.05R) | Wins and losses roughly cancelled; a small change in costs decides the sign |
| +0.05R to +0.2R | A small positive average; a few trades or a wider spread can erase it |
| +0.2R to +0.5R | A clearly positive average; check that it holds on more trades |
| Above +0.5R | Unusually high; check the sample size, the costs and that every trade followed the same rules |
The trading performance metrics lesson puts expectancy next to win rate, profit factor and drawdown.
How many trades do you need?
There is no fixed number, but the fewer the trades, the more one result moves the average. Turning a single −1R loss into a +2R win changes expectancy by 0.3R in a 10-trade record, 0.06R in 50 trades and 0.03R in 100 trades. A record of 100 or more trades taken the same way gives a much steadier figure.
A backtest in the MetaTrader 5 strategy tester can produce hundreds of trades on past data, and its report shows the Expected Payoff, the average result per trade. A demo account gives a forward record under live prices. Neither turns the figure into a forecast.
What does each input mean?
The calculator needs three figures from your own closed trades: the win rate, the average win and the average loss, each after costs. The account currency only labels the result. The trading journal lesson shows how to keep a record that gives you these numbers.
- Account currency: the currency your record is in.
- Win rate: the percentage of your closed trades that ended in a gain.
- Average win, after costs: the total of your winning trades divided by how many there were, after spread, commission and swap.
- Average loss, after costs: the same for your losing trades, entered as a positive number.
What are the assumptions and limits?
Expectancy describes trades that have already closed, so it summarises a record rather than forecasting the next trade. How steady the figure is depends on how many trades stand behind it and whether they were all taken the same way, as the points below set out.
- Expectancy describes trades that have already closed. It is not a forecast, and the next trades can differ from the record.
- A short record can show a positive figure by luck. The more trades a record holds, the steadier its averages, but no number of trades makes it a prediction.
- A record only means something if the trades were taken the same way. Changing the method, the instrument or the market conditions can change the result.
- Averages hide the order of results. A run of losses can take an account into a margin call even when the average is positive. Nothing you enter is stored.
Frequently asked questions
What is a good expectancy in trading?
Expectancy above zero means the closed trades in a record gained on average after their losses; below zero means they lost. It is a description of that record, not a promise about future trades, so treat a small positive figure on few trades with caution.
What is the difference between expectancy and win rate?
Win rate counts how often trades won; expectancy also weighs how much they won and lost. A 40% win rate with $100 wins and $50 losses gives +$10 per trade, while a 60% win rate with $50 wins and $100 losses gives −$10.
What is expectancy in R?
It is expectancy divided by the average loss. A result of 0.2 R means the average trade gained 0.2 times the average loss. It lets you compare records from accounts of different sizes.
Can a low win rate still have a positive expectancy?
Yes, if the average win is large enough compared with the average loss. With average wins twice the average loss, a win rate above 33.3% gives a positive expectancy, and one below it gives a negative one.
Why include costs in the averages?
Because spread, commission and swap are paid on every trade. A record that is positive before costs can be negative after them, especially with small targets. The trading cost calculator shows what a trade costs.
Sources
- MetaQuotes, MetaTrader 5 Help: Testing Report (accessed 20 October 2026): Expected Payoff is the average return of one deal; average profit trade and average loss trade are the total of profits or losses divided by the number of winning or losing trades; profit and loss trades are shown as a percentage of total trades. https://www.metatrader5.com/en/terminal/help/algotrading/testing_report
- MetaQuotes, MetaTrader 5 Help: Trading Report (accessed 20 October 2026): the account trading report shows win trades as a percentage of all trades, the average profit and average loss of closed positions, and the profit factor. https://www.metatrader5.com/en/terminal/help/trading/report
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